The Left is gradually losing its longstanding support among ethnic minority voters. In the 2024 general election, Labour won less than half of the non-white vote for the first time ever, experiencing a roughly 10% drop compared to its share in 2020. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party achieved some of its best results in areas with large Hindu populations.
A similar trend is occurring in the United States, where many non-white voters are shifting their support to the Republicans. U.S. polls predict a comparable 10% swing toward the Republicans in the 2024 elections.
This shift isn’t entirely surprising when examining public opinion surveys from recent years.
A recent study found that 22% of ethnic minority Britons prioritize keeping taxes low, a figure that aligns closely with white Tory voters. Ethnic minorities also place less emphasis on social justice issues compared to white Labour voters.
U.S. polls reveal that on issues such as immigration, patriotism, and meritocracy, the average Black or Hispanic voter is significantly more conservative than the average white liberal voter.
However, it is essential not to overstate the extent of this shift to the right among ethnic minorities.
For instance, the top three policy issues among white voters in Britain are the NHS, economic growth, and immigration, in that order. In contrast, ethnic minority voters prioritize economic growth, the NHS, and then poverty and inequality.
Within ethnic minority groups, there is also variation. British Indian and British Chinese voters, for example, hold the most right-leaning economic views among these groups.
It’s also noteworthy that Labour lost significant support among British Muslims due to its stance on Israel’s actions in Palestine. Many of these voters turned to the Green Party or Independent candidates in the 2024 election.
Why are ethnic minorities less likely to cote for Labour?
These voting patterns reflect broader social shifts in the life chances of ethnic minorities. As the inequality gap between ethnic minorities and the white average narrows, we might expect more ethnic minority voters to align with the Conservatives.
However, factors such as the recent conflict in Gaza show that cultural and religious identities also play a significant role, independent of economic status.
Sources
Focaldata (October 2024) NEW REPORT: Minorities Report: The Attitudes of Britain’s Ethnic Minority Population.
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