Birth rates are dropping almost everywhere. Two-thirds of the world’s population now lives in countries where the total fertility rate (TFR) – a measure of births per woman per lifetime – has dropped below 2.1, the number needed to keep the population constant.
According the to World Bank Open Data, the global TFR reached 2.3 in 2021; it will soon drop below the 2.1 replacement rate if it hasn’t already.
In the Europe and the UK the rate stands at 1.5 and 1.49 respectively. In East Asia, it is 1.2 and Latin America 1.9.
As recently as 2017 the UN was predicting the world’s population would climb to 11.2 billion by 2100. The UN now predicts it will peak at 10.4 billion in 2080. After this point it will start declining. This is from 8 billion today.
This decline could, in fact, happen decades earlier.
This will be the first such global-population decline since the Black Death in the Middle Ages. ‘The demographic winter is coming’ said Jesus Fernandez- Villarde of the University of Pennsylvania.
Why is the birth rate dropping?
This could be due to problems such as increasing economic insecurity, and the high cost of living, especially housing and childcare.
However fertility rates almost always come down when nations reach a certain level of economic and social development. This is known as ‘demographic transition’.
How do patterns vary globally?
Declining fertility used to be seen as a rich countries problem and to some extent it still is. The highest fertility rates in the world, of around five or six births, are in sub-Saharan countries such as Niger, Angola, and DRC. But now even poorer states have seen sharp falls in their fertility rates. In India, for example, the TFR fell to 2 in 2020!
Why are people worried?
There are two main concerns.
People are having fewer children than they want. Polls suggest that UK women on average want between two and three children.
Second is the consequences for the dependency ratio. The dependency ratio is the number of people of working age relative the number of people not of working age (children and retired people).
A shrinking population means that more jobs will go unfilled and economic dynamism will reduce. The most immediate fear is that welfare systems will be underfunded. They rely on working age people to fund them, after all.
Today the G7 richest economies have roughly three people of working age for everyone one over 65, but by 2050 they will have fewer than two.
In South Korea, the national pension fund is expected to run out of cash by 2055. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world at 0.72.
Can birth rates be boosted?
Governments are trying but nothing has been very effective.
Japan has experimented with childcare subsidies and stipends since the 1990s. Its fertility rate climbed from 1.26 in 2005 to 1.45 in 2015. But then sank to 1.2 again by 2023.
South Korea has invested a staggering $270 billion in fertility initiatives since 2006 but its birth rates keep declining.
In France Macron has offered better paid parental leave and fertility check ups. However this hasn’t changed anything.
Hungary has had some success. It spends 5% of GDP trying to prop up the birth rate. It provides three years of parental leave to mothers and lifelong exemption from income tax for women who have a child before aged 30. And loans of $36K which are written off for couples who have at least three children and a subsidised minivan. And free IVF to women, but not single women or lesbians. Hungary’s birth rate has increased from 1.2 in 2011 to 1.5 today.
Extreme right-wing policies boost birth rates
In Romania inn 1966 NC decree 770 removed contraception from sale and abortion was restricted, the fertility rate jumped from 1.9 to 3.7 within a year.
Do family friendly policies help?
Some of the world’s lowest fertility rates are in nations where women play an important role in the workplace, but where traditional gender roles have endured, and where there has been little provision for maternity or paternity leave.
For example, Japan, South Korea, Italy (1.2) and Taiwan (0.8) all have very low birth rates.
But eventhe most family friendly nations have low fertility rates such as Finland (1.32) Norway (1.4) and Sweden (1.45)
It seems the social trends behind low fertility are hard to reverse.
Other solutions to sort out the dependency ratio
Immigration is one possible solution to the ageing population. However the numbers would have to very large to solve the problems. We’d need net migration to be 500 000 a year in the UK for several years to maintain the current ratio of working age to dependent people.
A second solution is to plan for a smaller, older population. This must involve adopting technological solutions such as automating as many job roles as possible.
Signposting
This is relevant to the families and households module, usually taught in the first year of A-level sociology.
This post serves as an update to trends in the birth rate, in global perspective.
It is also relevant to the consequences of an ageing population.